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Corporate America's Next Crisis: The $1.6 Trillion "Debt Tsunami Of Worry"
ZeroHedge, Dec. 2, 2018
Much has been said about the threat that some $3 trillion in BBB-rated bonds (out of a total investment grade universe of $6.4 trillion in the credit market). There are growing fears that the next economic slowdown will see over $1 trillion in "fallen angel" credit swamp the junk bond market, sending yields and spreads sprinting higher. Less has been said about the risk of higher-rated A and AA bonds being downgraded to BBB on their way to junk.
The risk of a wholesale downgrade of the investment grade market is increasingly being priced in by the market - even if the timing might be postponed if the Fed were to cut rates in 2019. A new big concern for the credit market is emerging, and here the timing of the imminent threat is all too urgent. Corporate America is now facing a "maturity tsunami of worry" that is some 1.6 trillion dollars high.
This wall of maturing debt is about to slam head on into S&P 500 companies. Banks are deeply concerned by the maturity of bonds that need to be refinance over the next few years. Said maturity wall is made even scarier by adding the counterparty risk with the company's bank lenders.
More than a wall, the debt coming due is a wave that has been building for a decade. Or a tsunami, which will hit both viable and "zombie" companies with billions in higher interest expense costs some time in 2019.
The amount of newly issued debt (and also debt coming due) has been growing at an exponential rate over the past decade. Indeed, the market cap of the 1-3 Year Credit index reached a record high of $1.4 trillion at the end of September, or roughly three times what it was before the crisis.
Finally, just as troubling is the amount of junk bond maturities in the coming decade. Needless to say, as trillions in debt mature over the next several years and have to be rolled over into debt with far higher yields and cash coupons, corporations will be saddled with tens of billions in additional interest expense costs.
As for the other key question - whether this $1.6 trillion "debt maturity tsunami" results in a cascade of defaults - unless the Fed takes aggressive action to cut rates (and keep zombie companies alive), the next two years of mass defaults should prove to be quite exciting.
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