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A Bloodbath For The $800 Billion Trucking Industry As US Economy Collapses
The Economic Collapse blog, June 19, 2019
The U.S. trucking industry has not experienced a downturn of this magnitude since the last financial crisis, and this is one of the clearest signs yet that the U.S. economy is steamrolling into a severe economic downturn.
When economic activity is increasing, the trucking industry sees rising demand for their services and freight rates tend to go up. But when economic activity is on the decline, the trucking industry sees decreasing demand for their services and freight rates tend to go down. Unfortunately, the numbers that the U.S. trucking industry is reporting right now are absolutely abysmal.
According to the Cass Freight Index. Freight rates have dipped year-over-year for six months straight. Loads on the spot market, in which retailers and manufacturers buy trucking capacity as they need it rather than through a contract, have fallen by a chilling 62.6% in May year-over-year.
The spot market is where we see the marginal changes in demand most clearly, and what this is telling us is that we are already in a transportation recession. What we are witnessing right now is nothing short of a bloodbath.
The earnings of big and small players alike are getting hit as factory activity continues to decline. There has been a spate of trucking companies declaring bankruptcy this year, too. The largest was New England Motor Freight, which was No. 19 in its trucking segment. Falcon Transport also shut down this year, abruptly laying off some 550 employees in April. If demand does not start rebounding really soon, we are going to see many more trucking companies go bankrupt.
In fact, all modes of transportation are down compared to last year, and that is a clear indication that big trouble is ahead for the U.S. economy.
Last year at this time we were in the midst of a trucking boom, and as a result orders for heavy trucks surged to record highs. But now that the trucking boom has turned into a trucking bust, we are watching orders for heavy trucks absolutely collapse.
In fact, the number of new orders for heavy trucks in May was way down. Net order data from ACT Research shows that the industry booked just 10,800 units in May, down 27% sequentially, but also lower by an astonishing 70% year-over-year. YTD orders are down 64% compared to the first five months of 2018.
This would not be happening if we had a “booming” economy. Nobody should be attempting to claim that the U.S. economy is in good shape at this point. All of the numbers are definitely pointing in the other direction.
What this means is that we should all be ready to go through another brutal economic downturn. A lot more job losses are coming. It doesn’t matter if you have worked your tail off for years and have been the most loyal employee in America. When it comes time for heads to roll, it won’t be the corporate executives with the fat paychecks that are let go.
When things started to go bad in 2008, the economic dominoes began to fall very quickly. The “next economic downturn” is already here.
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